Prediction-Market Volumes Surge Past $3 Billion in Q3, Fueled by Sports Betting and Crypto Traders

Prediction markets witnessed unprecedented activity in the third quarter, with trading volumes eclipsing $3 billion—overshadowing even the frenzy surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Wall Street giants CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange reported record-breaking weekly volumes exceeding $2 billion by mid-October, according to Bloomberg data.

The rally was largely driven by a sports betting boom, spearheaded by New York-based Kalshi. The federally licensed platform bypassed state regulators to offer nationwide wagering, attracting a flood of retail traders through a strategic partnership with Robinhood. Football season's kickoff in August and September catalyzed a surge in Kalshi's contract volumes.

Polymarket, still barred from U.S. traders due to regulatory clashes, mirrored the uptick as crypto-savvy bettors and political gamblers found new speculative opportunities. Football dominated the action, with Kalshi processing $867 million in wagers and Polymarket $415 million during the peak week of October 19. Kalshi's introduction of parlays—allowing bundled low-odds bets—proved particularly compelling in a market where contracts universally settle at $0 or $1.